Crude Oil Price Analysis for August 29, 2017


The average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline Monday in Lancaster was $2.46, down 1 cent from a week ago, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report. As the storm came ashore, numerous countries oil refineries were in its path and had to be shut down.

"The pop in gasoline prices is an immediate response to the closure of refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast", Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, tells CNN.

Crude oil prices took a run-up to $47.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday and wholesale gas prices jumped nearly a dime a gallon last week to land at $1.66 a gallon, NASDAQ reported.

That being said, McTeague advised people to "keep watching" what's happening with Hurricane Harvey. This group of production sites is responsible for approximately 22 percent of all oil produced on the U.S. Gulf Coast; their shutdown cuts out almost a quarter of all coastline production.

Brent crude futures were up 2 cents at $52.43 per barrel.

Monster storm Harvey slammed into a key U.S. oil-producing region disrupting output amid the devastation, but crude stocks are high enough that the impact on the industry should be short-lived, experts said Monday. About 379,000 bpd of crude production was shut in the Gulf of Mexico. It has since been downgraded to a tropical storm, but it is slow-moving and has dropped as much as two feet of rain on Houston already. Over 2 million bpd of refining capacity was estimated to be offline as a result of the storm.

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It added that the storm's impact would "linger for several more weeks".

Texas is home to 5.6 million bpd of refining capacity, and Louisiana has 3.3 million bpd. Still, Jakob warned that the scale of USA upstream outages was not yet clear, and extensive damage on oilfields or pipelines could boost WTI prices.

Crude markets were also looking at disruptions in Libya and Colombia.

Sharara, which at 280,000 bpd is the OPEC member's largest oilfield, has been shut for around a week because of militia blocking a pipeline linking it to the Zawiya oil terminal.

"We are thus lowering our Brent oil price estimates to $55 per barrel from $60 per barrel in 4Q17 (and) to $57 per barrel from $64 per barrel in 2018", Jefferies bank said.